| 05/01/2023 Thursday briefing: The key points behind Sunak's five pledges – and Starmer's 'memorable vision' | | | | Dear reader - thank you so much for signing up to the Guardian's First Edition. I'm Archie, the editor of the newsletter, which I'll be sending you every weekday with the help of assistant editor Nimo Omer and the rest of the team. I really hope you enjoy it. I know opening your inbox when you're still a bit bleary-eyed isn't necessarily the most relaxing part of your morning routine: our aim is to be the new email that you actually want to read.
Today's edition - literally your FIRST EDITION - is below. Thanks so much again for joining us - and let us know what you think at first.edition@theguardian.com.
Archie Bland |  | | | Archie Bland |  |
| | | Good morning. Speeches by party leaders are like buses: long, obvious and quite boring. There are two of them this week – Rishi Sunak yesterday, setting out his vaulting dream of more maths lessons, and Keir Starmer today, attempting to persuade voters that he has a larger vision than saying "get a grip" a lot. In a time of tumult, both leaders have sought to make a virtue of their Routemaster vibes: sturdy big beasts who you can count on to take you somewhere predictable. At the same time, both are keenly aware that if they do not find more memorable stories to tell about themselves, they are likely to be drowned out by overlapping political crises. Today's newsletter, with Guardian political reporters Pippa Crerar and Jessica Elgot, looks at what these two speeches tell us about how the men making them will try to seize the agenda. Here are the headlines. | | | Five big stories | 1 | | 2 | Monarchy | Prince William subjected his brother Prince Harry to a physical attack leaving him with "scrapes and bruises" as their relationship fell apart, the younger prince alleges in his forthcoming autobiography. In a copy of the book obtained by the Guardian, Harry says that William "grabbed me by the collar, ripping my necklace, and … knocked me to the floor". | 3 | Strikes | Anti-strike legislation is expected to be brought forward later this week, as Rishi Sunak's government scrambles to get a grip of the ongoing industrial disputes. The prime minister will announce legislation to enforce "minimum service levels" in six sectors, including the health service, rail, education, fire and border security. | 4 | | 5 | Literature | The writer Fay Weldon, who chronicled the ups and downs of British life in novels, TV dramas, plays and short fiction for more than five decades, has died aged 91. The novelist Jenny Colgan described her as "someone who is utterly, fearlessly and for ever true to themselves" in this tribute. | | | | In depth: 'They both need to offer a bigger vision of hope' | | There are at most two years left in this parliament, and Labour is a commanding 20 points ahead in the polls. While there are some warnings (£) that this lead might be softer than the top-line figures suggest because so many voters are undecided, the next general election still appears to be Keir Starmer's to lose. After a firefighting autumn statement, Sunak seems to have decided that what voters would most appreciate is a period of silence – but the Daily Star's "Where's Rishi?" front page yesterday is one index of why he might now feel he has to get back on the front foot. To that end, a planned speech appears to have been brought forward to get ahead of Starmer – who, for his part, will hope to counter persistent suggestions that he has failed to draw a slate of policy ideas into a comprehensive and easily understood plan for the country. "From both sides you hear that what the public want is a bit of stability after a couple of years of real ups and downs," Pippa Crerar said. "They're quite happy to be seen as providing that stability, but there is obviously a feeling that, at this point in the political cycle, they should be offering some sort of bigger vision of hope and optimism for the future." Here's a guide to how each is approaching the task, and what obstacles they have in front of them.
Rishi Sunak: three big crises, five vague promises The trails of Sunak's speech focused on his proposal to continue maths education up to 18 – a laudable aim, most people would agree, but one that even Sunak admits won't bear fruit before the next election, and seems pretty removed from what most people are worrying about. "For the last few weeks, it's been clear from people around him that he's going to have three priorities for the next couple of years – and all of them are managing situations not of his own making," Pippa said. "The NHS, the economy and the small boats crisis: any one of them could make or break his premiership. "But they're also aware that there's not much to differentiate him in a positive way from Starmer. This is supposed to show that he has ambitions of his own." Still, when Sunak spoke, he grounded his message in something that is meant to look more concrete: five pledges which he said the public should judge him on, "no tricks, no ambiguity". But look closely and – as many noted in the aftermath of the speech - they appear either slippery to define, or easy to achieve: • Halving inflation – in line with existing Bank of England forecasts, and largely a consequence of prices already having risen so much, according to Bloomberg senior economist Dan Hanson. • Growing the economy – but under questioning he said this could mean GDP rising by the end of the year, not over 2023 as a whole – an incredibly modest promise. • Ensuring national debt falling – but over the "medium term", which might make it hard to judge before the next election. • Cutting NHS waiting lists – which would be welcome but is also not really a solution to urgent problems in emergency care. James Illman of the Health Service Journal points out that this target was already set in NHS recovery plans last year. • Stopping the boats – which he defined as meaning that new laws would be passed to stop illegal crossings of the Channel, and could therefore be technically achieved even if numbers go up this year. Meanwhile, having not held a full press conference since becoming prime minister, he stuck around for a noticeably large number of questions from the media – perhaps to disarm claims he has been avoiding scrutiny over the NHS in particular. Now that politics is gearing up again after the Christmas break, one question is whether his own MPs will press him to be more proactive. "When Tory MPs get back next week, they will have very direct first-hand experience from their constituencies over Christmas of what their constituents are going through," Pippa said. "It's going to be interesting to watch."
Keir Starmer: 'national renewal' without a 'big government chequebook' | | While the large number of undecided voters doesn't mean that Labour's lead is insignificant, it does present a problem that Keir Starmer's team are all too aware of, Jessica Elgot said. "Some of the wavering voters are those who voted Conservative for the first time, and therefore might have to go back on that decision," she said. "It's a pride point. They might now have shifted into the 'don't know' category, but to return to Labour is the next big challenge." Many of them are already. "But it needs to happen in more places, in the red wall, but also in Scotland and elsewhere." So how can Starmer do that? So far, the approach seems to have been to let the Tories hang themselves – but in this piece from December, political scientist Robert Ford argued that "a focus on channelling discontent is not without risks", and noted that focus groups say they find Labour's intentions unclear. "They're pretty happy with how Christmas has gone for them – they feel like the government's been nowhere to be seen," Jessica said. Starmer's task today is to bring together a range of recent policy proposals – from job centre reform to replacing the House of Lords – "into a more coherent vision and narrative, so that they have a platform to talk about all of these policies together." For a sense of how he will try to do that, see this preview of his speech by Kiran Stacey, who reports that he will promise a "decade of national renewal" and an end to "sticking plaster politics" – but also warn that this should not be "taken as code for Labour getting its big government chequebook out again". You can guess which makes the splash of the Daily Telegraph. There may be more to the speech than this – but those two conflicting messages do seem to get at the heart of the problem: being cautious and persuading people you really are going to radically change the country aren't natural bedfellows. "There is a split at the top of Labour," Pippa said. "There are those that want to focus on the vision, and those who feel that what people actually care about most in the seats they need to win is not their £28bn green policy, but whether their schools have teaching assistants and they can get a GP appointment. "I mean, that's a political truism: everyone wants public services to operate properly. The challenge for them is how they can link the two, and persuade people that their plans for things like greening the economy can have a very direct, tangible, immediate impact on their lives." | | | What else we've been reading | | Satanists in the US are "regularly demonised by their opponents," writes Adam Gabbatt, and you may think: fair enough! But this interview with the Satanic Temple's co-founder Lucien Greaves at his funeral parlour HQ (featuring a statue of a goat-headed pagan deity) reveals a much more interesting reality. Archie Dealing with the climate crisis decisively and swiftly is an ever more pressing issue in the coming year. One of the ways to address the problem will be through the courts, with Isabella Kaminski setting out how 2023 will be a watershed year for climate litigation. Nimo William Fear's long read is a remarkable account of one relentless shift on a hospital ward, and hard to read and argue against NHS pay rises. By the end, he writes, "I feel as if I've been in a car crash." Archie Bird flu has been spreading across the UK and decimating populations of wild birds. Gwen Potter, a National Trust countryside manager, recalls the harrowing experience of picking up over 6,000 dead birds and what the next year of avian flu could mean. Nimo In reading the work of Rosemary Tonks, writes Audrey Wollen in the New Yorker, "we are resurrecting a self that the writer wished, without hesitation or mercy, to kill". This piece about a novelist and poet who later sought to obliterate her entire body of work asks compelling questions about the relationship between writers, their words and their readers. Archie | | | Sport | Premier League | Southampton fell to a dismal 1-0 home defeat against Nottingham Forest, leaving the south coast club rooted to the foot of the table, and depressing newsletter editors who seriously disrupted their carefully organised sleep schedule to attend. Meanwhile, Tottenham Hotspur routed Crystal Palace 4-0, West Ham and Leeds drew 2-2, and Aston Villa and Wolves drew 1-1. Football | David Gold, the joint-chairman of West Ham United, has died at the age of 86 after a short illness. Manager David Moyes said that Gold "had a genuine and sincere love for the Club and was a true supporter at heart". NFL | After the collapse of the Buffalo Bills' Damar Hamlin during an NFL fixture this week, Andrew Lawrence writes that the decision to suspend the game was a "frontier moment". It has always been the case that "pro football stops for nothing", he writes: maybe fans are now "less inclined to dismiss players as bags of meat meant to bang into one another for entertainment's sake." | | | The front pages | | "PPE gowns in £122m order 'not safe for use in NHS'" – our Guardian reporting of the Michelle Mone revelations continues today, leading the front page. The i has "NHS sending patients to hotels to ease bed blocking", while the Daily Mirror reports on one family's experience: "Our lovely dad died waiting for an ambulance" – it says three calls were put in to 999. Lots of boosting for Rishi Sunak today: the Times has "My five pledges to restore British pride", while the Daily Mail says "Rishi: judge me on my five-point plan to fix Britain" and the Daily Express alters only a few words – "Rishi: judge me on my pledges to fix Britain". The Financial Times brings the details: "Sunak promises to halve inflation, expand economy and cut NHS waits". All of which makes the Daily Telegraph stand out – "Starmer: We're no longer the party of big spending". | | | Today in Focus | | | | | | Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings | | | | The Upside | A bit of good news to remind you that the world's not all bad | | A 1963 novel by East German feminist author Brigitte Reimann will get its first English translation, introducing Reimann to a new audience 50 years after her death. Siblings, a novel Reimann wrote in her late 20s, a few years after the Berlin Wall was built, is considered a seminal classic of East German literature. The book is a hopeful, bold tale of a young woman's belief in reconstruction in a postwar era, and focuses on socialist and feminist ideas. Siblings was heavily censored by the authorities, with the original manuscript published in the last 25 years. Reimann's other works have continued to be discovered and rediscovered; her previously unpublished debut novel was released for the first time last year, and another book has been adapted for the stage. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday | | | Bored at work? | And finally, the Guardian's crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian's Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow. | | |
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حبيبي ليس يعدله حبيب *** ولا لسواه في قلبي نصيب حبيب غاب عن بصري وسمعي *** ولكن في فؤادي ما يغيب يا حبيب ...
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