خبر وطني - Tunisia Continues to Face Substantial Financing Risks - موضوع جديد في المنتدى الذي تتابعه

منتديات تونيزيـا سات zied2000 قام بنشر موضوع جديد في القسم الذي أنت تتابعه في منتديات تونيزيـا سات. خبر وطني - Tunisia Continues to Face Substantial Financing Risks Fri 03 Mar, 2023 - 06:54 ET Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-03 March 2023: Tunisia's progress on policies required under the Staff Level Agreement (SLA) for an IMF support package has increased the likelihood of funding disbursement, but the country's external financing risk remains high and recent delays to the SLA's approval have highlighted risks to the programme's implementation, says Fitch Ratings. Our decision to upgrade Tunisia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC+', from 'CCC' in December 2022 reflected our assessment that the SLA reached with the IMF in October for a new 48-month USD1.9 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) would unlock substantial official creditor funding and support fiscal consolidation. The IMF Executive Board was originally due to approve Tunisia's EFF in December 2022, but the scheduled meeting was delayed. The reasons for the delay have not been publicly disclosed. However, we believe the amendment of the law on public-sector enterprises, passed by the council of ministers on 9 February, and the authorities' progress in finalising an updated financing plan have improved the prospects for board approval. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in mid-February that the authorities had made very good progress on prior actions required under the EFF and that she expected conclusion of the remaining actions within weeks, not months. Even assuming procedural delays, we consequently expect board approval and the release of the first tranche of IMF funding before the end of 2Q23. Under the updated financing plan, Tunisia would receive over USD5 billion of external funding, mostly from official creditors in Europe and the Gulf. This would be equivalent to around 65% of 2023 government financing needs, which Fitch estimates will total around 16.9% of GDP. The remaining financing could be provided mostly by local banks without putting significant pressure on their liquidity, in our view. We believe that official creditor support included in the plan remains conditional on IMF approval for the EFF. Our estimate of the government's financing needs assumes that the fiscal deficit is reduced to 5.7% of GDP in 2023, from 7.3% in 2022, through measures such as control of the wage bill and subsidy spending. It incorporates debt maturities of around 11.2% of GDP. Under our base case, Tunisia would avoid debt restructuring, securing sufficient funding to cover its external debt maturities of USD2 billion in 2023 (including a EUR500 million Eurobond maturing in October) and USD2.6 billion in 2024 (including a EUR850 million Eurobond maturing in February). However, the rating of 'CCC+' indicates that default is a real possibility. External liquidity remains tight. A USD900 million financing package secured at the end of 2022, mostly from Afreximbank and Algeria, provided some relief and stabilised official reserves at around three months of import cover. Nevertheless, prolonged delays in external funding disbursement or a significant increase in Tunisia's import bill would add significantly to external pressures, given large current-account deficits, which we estimate at USD3.4 billion in both 2023 and 2024. A decline in foreign-exchange reserves available for debt repayment could put downward pressure on the rating. Even if the EFF is approved, external financing strains could quickly reappear if Tunisia deviates from the IMF programme objectives and further disbursements under it are suspended. This would likely also impede bilateral financing disbursements, as we believe official creditor financing is largely contingent on reform prospects. Historically, Tunisia's adherence to IMF programmes has been weak. The government's ability to implement reform commitments under the EFF could be challenged if social instability increases, and some reforms, such as those for state-owned enterprise and subsidies, may generate strong opposition from the influential Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT). مشاهدة هذا الموضوع منتديات تتابعها الرجاء عدم الرد على هذه الرسالة. يجب عليك زيارة المنتدى للرد. تم إرسال هذه الرسالة لك لأنك اخترت متابعة القسم "منتدى الأخبار" في منتديات تونيزيـا سات مع إشعار بالبريد الإلكتروني عند وجود مواضيع أو مشاركات جديدة. لن تتلقى أي رسائل أخرى حول هذا الموضوع حتى تقوم بقراءة الرسائل الجديدة. إذا كنت لا ترغب في تلقي المزيد من هذه الرسائل، يمكنك تعطيل الرسائل من هذا القسم أو تعطيل كافة الرسائل. قم بزيارة منتديات تونيزيـا سات